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David Barnes
7 Reasons Why @FBIndie is Missing the Impact of the iPad
A few of you might be wondering why my recent anti-iPhone rant didn't even mention the iPad. I'm sure the iPad will sell and make lots of money for Apple, which is its purpose and we shouldn't deny Apple that success. But I don't think its impact will be felt very much outside of Apple's own revenue figures, and here's why:
- Apple has never succeeded at creating a market. Apple is amazing at building outstanding products in established or growing markets. Everybody knew that MP3 players would be mass market before the iPod took off. There were already many on the market, other forms of portable music player (pocket radio, cassette, CD, Minidisc players) were blockbuster products, but nobody had yet figured out how to make a really good MP3 player. The iPod delivered. And the iPhone didn't create a market either. It took the technology of a smartphone, and marketed it to the mainstream phone user. A genius and innovative twist. Where Apple try to create a new market from scratch or almost scratch, you don't hear much about it after the initial launch. AppleTV anybody?
- The Newton. !
- It's a giant Swiss army knife. Have you seen that DICE presentation? A "do everything" tool like a Swiss Army Knife works great in the pocket. But nobody has a giant Swiss army knife in their kitchen or toolshed. People want a whole bunch of tools to do different jobs.
- Let's face it, it really IS just a giant iPod Touch. We've already seen 90% of the "impact" of the iPad in the form of the iPod Touch. What exactly do you expect the impact to be, beyond being an iPod Touch with a bigger screen?
- The whole "multiplayer" angle is a red herring. Grasping for some interesting angle to iPad games, people talk about 2 player games where you each hold half of the device. But the iPad just isn't big enough. We like our personal space. Crowding around a single keyboard feels bad enough. With the iPad you'll be even closer together. Yuck!
- Even if it shifts a lot of units, it won't change the game. I'm not saying the iPad won't sell. I'm just saying that from a developer's point of view, it won't make that much difference. The iPhone might have been a game changer for the phone and app industry -- but did it make that much difference to the iTunes music store? I'll wager that 90% of iPhone users owned an iPod before they bought an iPhone, and that their music buying habits didn't change much at all once they got the iPhone in their hands. The iPad will hook into the existing AppStore infrastructure, I bet it won't sell anything like as many units as the iPhone and iTouch, and will lead to only a subtle difference in game and app purchase behavior.
- You need to get it out of your bag. The iPhone is cool because it's in your pocket and you can whip it out any time you like. The iPad is going to either go in a bag, or be left on its side next to your sofa. If it's in a bag, it'll need to be in a sleeve too to stop it getting mucky. It'll be a fiddle to pick it up. If you had an iPad in your bag and an iPhone in your pocket, which are you going to reach for to check your mail in a spare 3 minutes? 2000 FBIndie dollars says you'll reach for your pocket, right? Even if you have an iPad with you and ready to use, you'll still use the iPhone more. How's that for not having a lot of impact?
What kind of impact are you expecting from the iPad?
Posted
by David Barnes
9 Reasons For Indie Developers to Flip the Finger at the iPhone
I have a theory that when Steve Jobs first announced the iPhone, he knew full well that there would be a 3rd party application API. I bet he'd already designed it. But he also knew that it was a scheme that gave Apple everything and the developer nothing. How could he get developers to buy into that vicious scheme?
He made them beg for it.
Oh Mr Jobs sir, we'd give anything to be able to write applications for your magical device. Oh please Mr Jobs. Please.
Nope (testily), HTML 5 is all you'll need.
But it's OS X! On a phone! OS X is wonderful! Your phone is wonderful! And you are most wonderful of all! Please sir! Please!
He got developers to beg for an API and AppStore toolchain that was in Apple's advantage, all the while acting like he was reluctantly giving them what they'd asked for.
Well I say no more. It's time for indie developers to flip the finger at those multi-touch screens, and start building for other platforms. 9 reasons why the iPhone deserves your 1-fingered salute:
- 99 cents?!?! Seriously, the race to the bottom with iPhone pricing is an insult to developers. Some games have the lite version for free, and then the upgrade costs 99 cents! Only in the iPhone world is the premium version of anything 99 cents.
- Every other indie developer in the universe is leaping onto the AppStore. You're unlikely to stand out as an iPhone developer... and if you do anything too innovative, you'll always be in danger of having your place in the AppStore revoked. Clearly there are a few people making megabucks on the AppStore, and many people making a decent living. But looking at the whole system there isn't enough gold for the rush.
- The approval process is like joining the Masons. You know that you've got to bend over. You know that you've got to co-operate and give everything. You don't know when or if your app will be approved. And if it's developed for the iPhone, getting approval is your only hope. There's no other way to distribute. Once you're up there, you'll never know when they change their policy and decide to take you out.
- For the iPhone, apps are virtually a loss leader -- but it's the developer's loss and Apple's lead. More and more, Apple uses the availability of free and cheap apps to market the iPhone and iTouch. The promise is: buy this device for a few hundred bucks, and gain access to thousands of free or cheap games and apps. Remember how games consoles in the late 80s and early 90s were cheap, but the games were expensive? Companies made a loss on the console, but made up for it on the games. Apple has turned this on its head -- they have a high cost, high profit device marketed by loss-making games and apps. But they don't bear the loss on the apps -- you do.
- Your fate is in Jobs' hands. If you build your business on the iPhone platform, then you're putting your business entirely in Apple's hands. If they change their strategy or have a spell of bad luck, the platform crumbles into the sea and you'll find yourself treading water without a life jacket.
- Flash and/or HTML5 will come, and the app market will wither. If the iPhone had Flash support then it would sell more units, but AppStore revenue would drop as people found alternative web games and apps. There will be somebody in Apple right now working out when the extra iPhone sales they'll get for supporting Flash outweighs the loss in AppStore revenue. That time will come -- once the existing market saturates and it's lack of Flash holding the remaining non-iPhone consumers back, do you think Apple will still insist that the iPhone won't support Flash? Have you been able to trust Apple's statements about future strategy in the past?
- The iPhone will always be a premium product. Cheaper handsets will come. Already commodity "free with contract" handsets are getting bigger screens and accelerometers. They're becoming credible gaming machines themselves. At some point there will be a genuine mass market for decent games that run on low cost commodity hand sets. iPhone developers will be caught looking the other way.
- You need a Mac, you need a developer program thing, you need to buy an iPhone. Just to be in the game as an iPhone developer, you need to hand Apple a whole bunch of money. Think about how it works -- they sell an expensive product to customers (and get a stream of income from iPhone network use too). They sell expensive products to developers (and get a stream of income from the developer licenses). And all so that developer and customer can exchange applications for less than $1 a pop!
- It's elitist. When you write a game for the iPhone, even if you give it away for free, you are limiting access to the wealthiest people in the world -- those who can afford an iPhone, and live in a Western country where they're easily available. Write an app that runs on commodity hardware, and you're providing a service even to some of the world's poorest people.
Do you consider the iPhone the platform for you? Are you putting all your eggs in Jobs' basket, or trying to spread yourself around? What platforms do you think will be big in the next 3 years?
Posted
by David Barnes
9 Reasons Why Indie Devs Should Embrace Facebook Like Crazy
There are plenty of reasons why indie devs won't do Facebook. But at least as many reasons to give it a go. Here are the top 9 reasons that Facebook is a sweet gift for the indie developers of the world. The developers I've seen who embrace these reasons seem to be doing quite nicely, thank you...
- Proven profit-making business model. The top Facebook games have proven, scalable revenue models. And unlike selling a game, once you've persuaded a player to pay once then they'll keep coming back for more -- PayPal account in hand. Even better you can keep tweaking the free version every day to get more conversions into paying customers. (Once a player's downloaded your free iPhone app, if it doesn't hook them onto the paid version then you've missed your chance. That's it!)
- Makes the Apple AppStore look like a kid's lemonade stand. Recently, Bejewelled became the first paid iPhone app to pass the 3,000,000 sales mark. The top 15 Facebook apps are getting 3,000,000+ users engaging with them every day. It makes the AppStore look quaint by comparison.
- Facebook gamers are cute girls and desperate housewives. The average iPhone user is either a geek or a self-fancying hipster. The average Facebook gamers are cute girls and desperate housewives. Who do you want to devote your life to impressing?
- Facebook games are sticky and addictive. Once a Facebook game is part of your Facebook experience, it stays there. Each time you log into Facebook is an opportunity to interact with the game. People use Facebook when they are bored and ready for distraction -- they'll keep coming back to your game again and again. Contrast this to casual Flash games on the "open web". Unless you remember or bookmark a game, the chances are you'll forget where you found it after the first play.
- It's underhyped among indies; most of them are staying away. Everybody's leaping on iPhone games. There is a real lack of people bringing an indie sensibility to Facebook games. The market is open.
- Even the most popular games have simple game mechanics, short development cycles, and low budgets. In terms of gameplay experience, with Facebook games you really can compete with the big boys. You can provide a gameplay experience that seems just as polished, clever, and professional as Zynga or Playfish. The pros might have good artwork, but it's also pretty simple.
- Viral growth is built into the platform. Even if you don't resort to "spamming" players' friends, there are plenty of opportunities to encourage Facebook players to share the game with their friends. People come to Facebook to check out what their friends are up to. If you can get the player "on your side" they'll happily brag about playing your games.
- Every computer user is a potential player. Most Facebook games will work on any computer, from the most basic netbook to the fanciest Mac. There are Facebook users all over the world. All ages use it and play games on it. Just about any niche group or target market could be engaged with a Facebook game. Your outlandish idea is more likely to find an audience on Facebook than anywhere else.
- You can retool your existing web games quickly. If you've got Flash or Unity games already written, you can quickly make them playable within Facebook. That might not turn them overnight into a social phenomenon, but it'll bring you a new audience and get you into the Facebook game... game. Are you game? Why not give it a go?
- What's the tenth reason? Add your own reasons in the comments below.
Is this enough to get you looking into Facebook games for your next projects? What's holding you back from jumping in? And if you're already working on Facebook games, what are the reasons that persuaded you to take the plunge?
Posted
by David Barnes
9 Reasons Why Indie Devs Won't Do Facebook
There just isn't much Indie action around Facebook games. Why not? I set out after some indie developers with zombie-like determination, to find out...
- The API keeps changing. Facebook frequently changes the API, meaning that the techniques used to market games stop working -- or even that the game itself breaks and becomes unplayable. Integrating with Facebook's oft changing UI is a nightmare.
- It's a winner takes all market. Zynga and the like have it all sewn up. Nobody else will make any money.
- You have to pay for servers. And if your game takes off you could be looking at a very big bill.
- Facebook games play on addiction. Indie developers are the moral type. They don't want to write games for the kind of addicts that can't keep away from Facebook. They'd prefer write them for the kind of addicts that can't put down their iPhone.
- Facebook games are annoying. Who doesn't hate seeing Facebook game notifications in their Facebook feeds? Developers will lose all their indie cred if they touch Facebook.
- No game portals have got any traction. So you can't distribute your games along with other Indie games. You have to build your own marketing channel, and...
- Marketing is hard and expensive. To really get users you have to pay for advertising, and unless you've got somebody bank rolling your game that's a risky strategy.
- Testing and debugging hell. To test the games you need either a load of fake Facebook accounts, or a load of willing friends. Either way, because the game is partly under Facebook's control you have to trust that their code won't break your work.
- Facebook games are for girls. The top Facebook games are all childish dumb things like farming and running restaurants. I don't want a part of that!
- What's the tenth reason? Add your own reason in the comments below.
Are these reasons good enough to ignore the biggest game playing market in the world today? Do you really think that Facebook gamers are so dumb that they won't enjoy thoughtful, creative social games? And if indie developers work together, can we overcome these problems? For example, groups of developers can help test each others games, share money making strategies, and keep abreast of API changes. What do you say?
Update: Now there's 9 Reasons Why Indie Devs Should Embrace Facebook Like Crazy too.
Posted
by David Barnes
