Facebook Indie Games

Gamesbrief makes the point that Facebook games are to AAA titles what TV is to the movies.

If that's true, what can we expect to happen over the next few years? Here's what my crystal ball has to say:

1. Some good games will get to the top on Facebook, but not that many. Look at TV (or movies for that matter?) Do the best shows get the most viewers? Sometimes, but not always. There's a huge and sustained market for televisual crap (especially because the mass market tends not to monetize too well, so budgets are low).
   
2. More cult games to emerge for niche audiences. Games and genres loved and obsessed over by relatively few people: the Star Trek, Babylon 5, Mad Men, or Curb Your Enthusiasm of Facebook games.
   
3. Mass market channels / networks that aim to deliver only top rated shows. We're seeing Zynga, Playdom, etc. in these categories already. They don't have any particular "agenda" to the sort of games they do -- only that they get the required return on investment. Like Fox, ABC, or ITV in the UK.
   
4. Specialist channels that aim to consistently appeal to their subscriber base or viewers. There are many TV channels that focus on a particular genre or a particular demographic: Cartoon Network, HBO, MTV, Nickelodeon. We can expect to see brands like this emerge, consistently developing new games that players will love -- with strong cross promotion potential. Digital Hot Chocolate's NanoVerse concept experiments with this.
5. Separation between channels and producers. It's gonna happen. At some point, Zynga will start publishing games that were developed externally. Developers will want their games to be available on the most appropriate channels, and channels will inevitably have more power most of the time.